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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 14, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver

Nashville Predators 4, Vancouver Canucks 7

Away

Nashville Predators

4

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.

VAN winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH17112214433
VAN3102428722

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:25VANAndrew EbbettAssists: Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:53NSHMatt HalischukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
  3. P1 5:20VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Chris Tanev, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P1 18:07VANMason RaymondAssists: Andrew Ebbett, Jannik Hansen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P2 5:32VANMaxim LapierreAssists: Dale Weise, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
  6. P2 6:01NSHNick SpalingAssists: Zach Boychuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
  7. P2 13:48VANJannik HansenGWGAssists: Andrew Ebbett, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–5
  8. P3 6:38NSHMike FisherAssists: Matt Halischuk · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–5
  9. P3 15:41NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: David Legwand · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–5
  10. P3 17:26VANHenrik SedinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–6
  11. P3 18:23VANDavid BoothENAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–7
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:28NSHKevin Klein: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:28VANSteven Pinizzotto: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 9:11NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 9:11VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 10:47NSHVictor Bartley: Holding2 min
  6. P1 12:49VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
  7. P2 3:25VANMaxim Lapierre: Interference2 min
  8. P2 9:52NSHRyan Ellis: Interference2 min
  9. P2 16:07VANKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 8:22VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
  11. P3 17:26NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Penalty shot holding stick on breakaway0 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Higgins
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHVAN
33Shots on goal22
3.4Expected goals4.5
50Shot attempts46
39Faceoffs won28
4Power plays2
14Penalty minutes18
29Hits22
10Blocked shots8
5Giveaways7
8Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestFisher – Erat – Kostitsyn6:34

    xG 0.51–0.08 (87%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0

  2. Fisher – Kostitsyn – Halischuk3:07

    xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0

  3. Erat – Boychuk – Smith3:45

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  4. Legwand – Bourque – Butler9:43

    xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestWeber – Josi17:23

    xG 1.30–0.56 (70%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0

  2. Klein – Bartley10:49

    xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0

  3. Hannan – Ellis9:53

    xG 0.53–0.81 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 1–3

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows12:23

    xG 0.65–0.11 (86%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1

  2. Lapierre – Pinizzotto – Weise5:16

    xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

  3. Higgins – Booth – Pinizzotto2:11

    xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  4. Hansen – Raymond – Ebbett6:46

    xG 0.63–0.82 (44%)attempts 6–12goals 3–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestEdler – Tanev6:50

    xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0

  2. Alberts – Tanev7:06

    xG 0.19–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0

  3. Bieksa – Alberts6:02

    xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 4.5 xGNSH 3.4 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 87/100 · #105 of 720 this seasonSwing 1.27 · 11 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.

VAN winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).