Sat, Mar 16, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 415 | 05 | 02 | 2 | 533 |
| TOR | 114 | 28 | 17 | 03 | 1 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:29WPGJames WrightAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Nik Antropov · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 10:36WPGAntti MiettinenAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Olli Jokinen · Snap, 0.46 xG2–1
- P2 12:03WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 15:29WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Andrew Ladd, Zach Bogosian · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG4–1
- P2 18:35TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Jay McClement · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 19:00TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 5:50TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 2. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
- 3. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 4. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 5. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 6. WPG Olli Jokinen stopped
- 7. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 8. WPG Evander Kane stopped
- 9. TOR Matt Frattin stopped
- 10. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
- 11. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 12. WPG Antti Miettinen stopped
- 13. TOR Cody Franson stopped
- 14. WPG Dustin Byfuglien stopped
- 15. TOR Clarke MacArthur stopped
- 16. WPG Kyle Wellwood stopped
- 17. TOR Dion Phaneuf stopped
- 18. WPG Nik Antropov stopped
- 19. TOR Nikolay Kulemin stopped
- 20. WPG Zach Bogosian scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:06TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:06WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:22TORKorbinian Holzer: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:22TORKorbinian Holzer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:22WPGEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:22WPGZach Bogosian: Instigator2 min
- P1 8:22WPGZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:22WPGZach Bogosian: Misconduct10 min
- P1 8:22TORBen Scrivens: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:41WPGRon Hainsey: Interference2 min
- P1 10:07TORJoffrey Lupul: Interference2 min
- P1 13:37WPGAntti Miettinen: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:44TORJoffrey Lupul: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Miettinen – Kane14:52
xG 1.18–0.22 (84%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Tangradi – Cormier3:16
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Wright11:40
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:17
xG 0.48–0.68 (41%)attempts 15–14goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Clitsome19:03
xG 1.34–0.21 (86%)attempts 30–12goals 1–2
- Hainsey – Meech2:46
xG 0.29–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian14:53
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestOrr – Lupul – Kadri3:39
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Lupul – Frattin – Kadri8:01
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Orr – McClement – Komarov2:50
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Komarov – Kulemin3:36
xG 0.04–0.05 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson20:44
xG 0.65–0.83 (44%)attempts 18–23goals 2–1
- Franson – Fraser14:34
xG 0.20–0.47 (29%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Liles – Holzer12:57
xG 0.15–1.06 (12%)attempts 7–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).