Sat, Mar 16, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 29 | 16 | 110 | 425 |
| FLA | 09 | 06 | 315 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:26NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Frans Nielsen, Andrew MacDonald · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:59NYIRadek MartinekAssists: Mark Streit, Marty Reasoner · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 0:33NYIBrad BoyesAssists: John Tavares, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 5:09FLATJ BrennanAssists: Mike Santorelli, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 5:43FLAMarcel GocAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 6:52FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Jack Skille, Brian Campbell · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 12:55NYICasey CizikasGWGAssists: Colin McDonald, Keith Aucoin · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:24NYIMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:36FLAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:36NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Matthias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey12:19
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Boulton – Reasoner – Martin3:38
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares15:51
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Aucoin – McDonald – Cizikas9:22
xG 0.27–0.70 (27%)attempts 8–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey17:57
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:53
xG 0.69–0.90 (43%)attempts 18–25goals 1–0
- Martinek – Streit16:16
xG 0.31–1.45 (18%)attempts 13–22goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSantorelli – Skille – Matthias2:54
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann5:55
xG 0.58–0.16 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau15:06
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Santorelli6:58
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Brennan6:22
xG 0.89–0.05 (94%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Kuba – Strachan4:31
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 2–0
- Kuba – Campbell15:38
xG 0.58–0.45 (57%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).