Mon, Mar 18, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 29 | 15 | 319 |
| DAL | 312 | 06 | 16 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:07DALErik ColeAssists: Jordie Benn, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 15:49DALEric NystromAssists: Antoine Roussel, Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 18:11DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Ray Whitney, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P2 11:30CGYJiri HudlerPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Michael Cammalleri · Deflected, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 14:35CGYJay BouwmeesterPPAssists: Curtis Glencross, Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 12:06DALLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 15:14CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Jarome Iginla · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:15DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:24CGYDennis Wideman: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 9:20CGYJiri Hudler: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:32CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:32DALCody Eakin: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:11CGYChris Butler: Interference2 min
- P2 11:17CGYDennis Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:17DALCody Eakin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:17DALCody Eakin: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:05DALJordie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:41CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:32DALEric Nystrom: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Iginla – Tanguay – Cammalleri12:04
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Stajan – Stempniak – Glencross12:40
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Hudler – Comeau – Backlund10:30
xG 0.31–0.87 (26%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Butler2:43
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler5:07
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Butler – Smith2:35
xG 0.06–0.21 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Nystrom – Roussel7:46
xG 1.12–0.09 (92%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Whitney – Eriksson – Benn9:22
xG 0.96–0.10 (90%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Jagr – Whitney – Benn2:51
xG 0.04–0.11 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Cole – Roy6:15
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski17:32
xG 1.96–0.20 (91%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Robidas – Dillon19:09
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 2–1
- Benn – Oleksiak6:22
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).