Tue, Mar 19, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 19 | 04 | 322 |
| NJD | 212 | 012 | 07 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:49NYRMichael Del ZottoSHAssists: Derek Stepan · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 15:15NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Peter Harrold, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:50NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Dan Girardi, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 17:13NJDAnton VolchenkovAssists: Stephen Gionta · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 7:25NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:06NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:09NYRJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:21NJDRyan Carter: Interference2 min
- P2 3:00NJDTravis Zajac: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:11NYRAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:57NYRSteve Eminger: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Hagelin – Stepan12:03
xG 0.81–0.20 (81%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Nash13:20
xG 0.52–0.35 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Miller10:10
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Halpern – Powe – Haley4:14
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Del Zotto11:15
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:07
xG 0.58–0.38 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Stralman9:43
xG 0.41–0.25 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Pesonen5:20
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bernier – Zajac – Carter7:58
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Henrique7:01
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Barch – Gionta3:58
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Harrold7:19
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Larsson4:25
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson10:30
xG 0.17–0.25 (39%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).