Tue, Mar 19, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Ottawa Senators 5, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 07 | 410 | 523 |
| NYI | 19 | 212 | 08 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:23OTTMatt KassianAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Patrick Wiercioch · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 17:53NYIKeith AucoinAssists: Kyle Okposo, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 0:14NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 11:46NYILubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 1:07OTTJakob SilfverbergAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Peter Regin · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 2:15OTTZack SmithAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 19:00OTTSergei GoncharGWGAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Guillaume Latendresse · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:51OTTGuillaume LatendresseENAssists: Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:29OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:14OTTGuillaume Latendresse: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 1:06OTTDaniel Alfredsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:23NYIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P2 10:11OTTMatt Kassian: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:16OTTEric Gryba: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:10OTTSergei Gonchar: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Latendresse – Smith4:05
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Latendresse – Turris8:24
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Regin – Kassian – O'Brien3:23
xG 0.20–0.12 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Regin – Silfverberg – Zibanejad4:00
xG 0.10–0.07 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Wiercioch11:04
xG 1.17–0.33 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 3–0
- Phillips – Benoit8:54
xG 0.67–0.12 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Benoit3:29
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Boulton – Reasoner – Martin3:17
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares9:18
xG 0.52–0.62 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Cizikas10:15
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey12:39
xG 0.46–1.12 (29%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Martinek – Streit9:37
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:35
xG 0.86–1.00 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Visnovsky – Hickey14:41
xG 0.39–0.70 (36%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).