Tue, Mar 19, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 017 | 011 | 416 | 444 |
| CAR | 017 | 05 | 112 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 7:39FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P3 12:47FLAMarcel GocPPGWGAssists: Filip Kuba, Brian Campbell · Deflected, 0.27 xG2–0
- P3 13:51FLAShawn MatthiasPPAssists: Filip Kuba, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–0
- P3 17:27CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Dan Ellis · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 19:07FLAJerred SmithsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:11FLAPeter Mueller: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:37FLAScottie Upshall: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 17:18FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Diving2 min
- P2 17:18CARJay Harrison: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:21CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:50CARJamie McBain: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:15CARJay Harrison: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 17:02CARKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:02FLAEric Selleck: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 17:02FLAEric Selleck: Instigator2 min
- P3 17:02FLAEric Selleck: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Goc – Fleischmann10:25
xG 0.86–0.16 (85%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Upshall – Skille – Matthias7:51
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau10:47
xG 0.96–0.94 (51%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
- Smithson – Santorelli – Selleck6:18
xG 0.20–0.30 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Gudbranson13:38
xG 1.12–0.65 (63%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Campbell – Strachan18:49
xG 1.33–0.89 (60%)attempts 21–20goals 1–0
- Brennan – Robak11:15
xG 0.75–0.75 (50%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty11:00
xG 1.08–0.59 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Hall – Brent – Westgarth4:20
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Nash – Bowman7:30
xG 0.07–0.22 (23%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Skinner11:12
xG 0.30–1.39 (18%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – McBain3:39
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gleason – Sanguinetti9:37
xG 0.80–0.69 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Gleason – Harrison5:38
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).