Tue, Mar 19, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 210 | 02 | 06 | 13 | 321 |
| MTL | 08 | 011 | 215 | 00 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:47BUFSteve OttUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 18:59BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Tyler Myers, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P3 7:04MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 16:09MTLColby ArmstrongAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 2:16BUFSteve OttPPGWGAssists: Jordan Leopold, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:49BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:31BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 7:27MTLGabriel Dumont: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:30MTLJarred Tinordi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:35BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:35MTLAlexei Emelin: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:29MTLMax Pacioretty: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 0:17MTLP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Vanek – Leino – Ennis6:14
xG 0.07–0.04 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Stafford – Leino – Ennis2:40
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hecht – Stafford – Kaleta5:51
xG 0.05–0.18 (23%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Ott – Leino – Ennis2:09
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Leopold – Pysyk13:18
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Weber18:49
xG 0.42–0.87 (33%)attempts 12–29goals 0–1
- Regehr – Myers13:05
xG 0.12–0.75 (14%)attempts 6–20goals 2–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmstrong – Eller – Galchenyuk12:55
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Gionta – Ryder – Plekanec14:30
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:04
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 17–8goals 1–2
- Moen – White – Dumont4:40
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin16:14
xG 0.80–0.16 (83%)attempts 24–9goals 1–1
- Markov – Subban2:00
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Tinordi10:46
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).