Tue, Mar 19, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 015 | 06 | 213 | 234 |
| VAN | 03 | 314 | 02 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:30VANJannik HansenAssists: Mason Raymond · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 4:12VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.45 xG0–2
- P2 11:15VANDale WeiseGWGAssists: Jordan Schroeder, Daniel Sedin · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–3
- P3 5:46STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Wade Redden · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 13:38STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Kris Russell, David Perron · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:41VANZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:41STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:39VANTom Sestito: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:03VANKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:31STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:31VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:01STLAndy McDonald: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:24VANMason Raymond: Holding2 min
- P3 16:54STLVladimir Sobotka: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lapierre won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Tarasenko – Schwartz8:03
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Nichol – Porter – Reaves4:23
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Berglund – Perron13:08
xG 0.45–0.50 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Stewart11:06
xG 0.17–1.12 (13%)attempts 12–16goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestRedden – Shattenkirk12:39
xG 0.79–0.22 (79%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo2:25
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Polak – Russell15:25
xG 0.25–0.66 (28%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows13:20
xG 0.87–0.10 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Hansen – Raymond – Schroeder10:18
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Higgins – Lapierre – Pinizzotto5:34
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Higgins – Lapierre – Weise2:42
xG 0.04–0.18 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Garrison13:08
xG 1.03–0.11 (90%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa2:31
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ballard – Tanev11:45
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).