Wed, Mar 20, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 210 | 112 | 010 | 332 |
| COL | 013 | 214 | 27 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:06DALJaromir JagrAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 16:12DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 8:48COLMark OlverAssists: Patrick Bordeleau, Chuck Kobasew · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 13:30COLGabriel LandeskogSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- P2 15:56DALRay WhitneyAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Cody Eakin · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 6:20COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Mark Olver, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 16:31COLChuck KobasewGWGAssists: Matt Hunwick, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:16COLMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min
- P1 17:07DALJordie Benn: Interference2 min
- P1 17:57COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:01COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:14COLPatrick Bordeleau: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:37DALEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:37COLJan Hejda: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:37DALAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:37COLPA Parenteau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:09DALBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:27COLAaron Palushaj: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Smith – Eakin7:54
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Eriksson – Benn6:27
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Morrow – Cole – Roy9:56
xG 0.39–0.60 (39%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Roussel5:20
xG 0.10–0.37 (20%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski14:39
xG 0.56–0.21 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Robidas – Dillon17:29
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
- Benn – Oleksiak6:35
xG 0.35–0.81 (30%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Palushaj – O'Reilly3:48
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Mitchell – Stastny6:01
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Duchene – Landeskog5:12
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Bordeleau – Olver3:45
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Hejda11:11
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Johnson14:06
xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 14–20goals 2–1
- Zanon – Elliott11:32
xG 0.49–0.52 (49%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).