Wed, Mar 20, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 08 | 217 | 00 | 2 | 434 |
| EDM | 15 | 18 | 112 | 02 | 1 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:47EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Nail Yakupov, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 14:19SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 12:07EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Nick Schultz, Lennart Petrell · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 4:07EDMRyan JonesUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 6:50SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 9:15SJSTommy WingelsAssists: TJ Galiardi, Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
- 2. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 3. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 4. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 5. EDM Ales Hemsky stopped
- 6. SJS Dan Boyle scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:48SJSDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
- P1 10:11SJSDan Boyle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:52SJSAndrew Desjardins: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:52EDMRyan Jones: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:36SJSMartin Havlat: Interference2 min
- P2 2:36SJSMartin Havlat: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:36SJSMartin Havlat: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:00EDMNick Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 18:31SJSTommy Wingels: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:12EDMRyan Whitney: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Pavelski – Couture8:55
xG 0.73–0.58 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Gomez – Galiardi – Wingels9:50
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Burish – Desjardins – Sheppard5:56
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Murray8:04
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Demers12:39
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Boyle – Irwin8:16
xG 0.17–0.38 (30%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Jones – Eberle8:03
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Petrell – Hartikainen3:40
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gagner – Paajarvi – Yakupov9:34
xG 0.18–0.65 (22%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Hall12:54
xG 0.51–1.09 (32%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Schultz14:45
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Smid – Petry14:40
xG 0.56–1.07 (35%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Whitney – Fistric11:24
xG 0.17–0.74 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).