Thu, Mar 21, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 3, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 27 | 08 | 17 | 322 |
| NSH | 210 | 210 | 13 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01CGYMark GiordanoSHAssists: Lee Stempniak · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:36NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Roman Josi, Bobby Butler · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 13:05CGYBlake ComeauSHAssists: Mark Giordano, Jay Bouwmeester · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 18:09NSHMike FisherAssists: Martin Erat · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 13:24NSHMike FisherAssists: Roman Josi, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 14:24NSHNick SpalingGWGAssists: Victor Bartley, Kevin Klein · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 15:54NSHBrandon YipAssists: Kevin Klein, Rich Clune · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 19:00CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Curtis Glencross, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:12CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:16CGYSteve Begin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 9:16NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:15CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 1:59CGYBrian McGrattan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:15NSHShea Weber: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:15CGYLee Stempniak: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:46NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
- P3 8:37NSHBrandon Yip: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:08NSHRich Clune: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Cammalleri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBegin – McGrattan – Jackman2:51
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Hudler – Comeau – Backlund5:48
xG 0.11–0.07 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Comeau – Backlund3:25
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Glencross8:39
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bouwmeester – Brodie15:09
xG 0.65–0.67 (49%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
- Wideman – Giordano13:58
xG 0.27–0.49 (36%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Sarich – Butler9:40
xG 0.09–0.34 (22%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:14
xG 0.52–0.11 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Legwand – Beck – Bourque9:22
xG 0.45–0.07 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Yip – Clune – Spaling9:45
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Halischuk – Mueller – Butler3:43
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Bartley13:00
xG 0.77–0.55 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Blum – Ellis10:33
xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi17:04
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 8–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).