Sat, Mar 23, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 014 | 310 | 332 |
| OTT | 415 | 07 | 110 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49OTTJakob SilfverbergAssists: Marc Methot · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:29OTTEric GrybaAssists: Kyle Turris, Marc Methot · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 17:01OTTGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 19:50OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPGWGAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 11:37TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Eric Brewer, Richard Panik · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 13:53TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 18:01TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Victor Hedman, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:39OTTDaniel AlfredssonENAssists: Kyle Turris, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.70 xG3–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 14:40OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:40TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:31OTTEric Gryba: Interference2 min
- P1 18:40TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00TBLRichard Panik: Boarding2 min
- P1 0:00OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:54TBLB.J. Crombeen: Instigator2 min
- P2 9:54TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:54TBLB.J. Crombeen: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:54OTTMarc Methot: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:59OTTPeter Regin: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:25OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Purcell – Killorn3:09
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Pyatt – Killorn4:21
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Tyrell3:50
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat8:02
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Carle12:43
xG 0.78–0.09 (90%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Aulie – Gudas10:12
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas4:24
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Greening – Turris13:00
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Dziurzynski8:37
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Latendresse – Silfverberg – Zibanejad7:55
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 2–1
- Condra – Smith – Dziurzynski2:10
xG 0.01–0.04 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Gryba14:54
xG 0.96–0.33 (74%)attempts 18–9goals 3–1
- Phillips – Gryba2:11
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Phillips – Lundin11:34
xG 0.18–0.44 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).