Sat, Mar 23, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 113 | 111 | 235 |
| DAL | 210 | 213 | 18 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34DALDerek RoyAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:57DALJordie BennPPAssists: Derek Roy, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.36 xG0–2
- P2 0:58DALEric NystromGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–3
- P2 4:37DALCody EakinAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 19:05COLPA ParenteauPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 1:37COLPaul StastnyAssists: John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 6:44DALJaromir JagrAssists: Eric Nystrom, Jamie Benn · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:53DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:06COLCody McLeod: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:07COLJan Hejda: Interference2 min
- P2 10:39COLChuck Kobasew: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:05DALBrenden Dillon: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 12:38DALErik Cole: Holding2 min
- P3 18:36COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:36COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:36COLShane O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:36DALBrenden Dillon: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Jones – Duchene4:20
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene6:08
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Olver – O'Reilly2:17
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McLeod – Olver2:34
xG 0.01–0.13 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – O'Brien4:18
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Johnson13:39
xG 0.62–0.34 (65%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Hejda – Elliott7:42
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Nystrom – Benn8:16
xG 0.93–0.64 (59%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
- Morrow – Cole – Fiddler2:26
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Cole – Eakin5:20
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Roy – Eriksson13:42
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon16:43
xG 1.17–0.38 (75%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
- Daley – Goligoski18:50
xG 0.51–0.60 (46%)attempts 14–25goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Dillon2:20
xG 0.02–0.16 (9%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).