Sun, Mar 24, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 113 | 212 | 05 | 330 |
| COL | 19 | 010 | 19 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18VANJason GarrisonPPAssists: Henrik Sedin · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:18COLJamie McGinnAssists: PA Parenteau, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 3:13VANMason RaymondAssists: Jordan Schroeder, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 14:29VANAlexandre BurrowsGWGAssists: Andrew Ebbett, Keith Ballard · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 17:29COLPA ParenteauPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:07COLShane O'Brien: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:58COLErik Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:59COLMatt Hunwick: Delaying game2 min
- P2 17:46VANCam Barker: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:09VANJason Garrison: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:40VANMaxim Lapierre: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:28VANAndrew Alberts: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:18VANChris Higgins: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schroeder won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Higgins11:56
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Hansen – Raymond – Schroeder8:34
xG 0.62–0.56 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Gordon – Sestito4:59
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Alberts10:35
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev2:11
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Garrison8:18
xG 0.08–0.08 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – McGinn – Duchene8:31
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Mitchell – McLeod3:47
xG 0.03–0.12 (20%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Mitchell – Duchene3:35
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kobasew – O'Reilly – Landeskog9:46
xG 0.07–0.79 (9%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – O'Brien9:21
xG 0.18–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hejda – Hunwick2:19
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Zanon – Johnson9:11
xG 0.17–0.15 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).