Sun, Mar 24, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 119 | 112 | 238 |
| CGY | 15 | 14 | 18 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:13CGYRoman CervenkaPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 9:40CGYRoman CervenkaAssists: Jiri Hudler, Mikael Backlund · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 16:40STLT.J. OshieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 4:48STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Andy McDonald, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–2
- P3 12:58CGYJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:44CGYCurtis Glencross: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:53STLRoman Polak: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:27CGYRoman Cervenka: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:36STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P2 12:17CGYJiri Hudler: Interference2 min
- P2 14:33CGYCurtis Glencross: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:33STLT.J. Oshie: Diving2 min
- P3 10:26CGYTJ Brodie: Holding2 min
- P3 15:52STLRoman Polak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Stewart12:11
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Perron – Tarasenko9:03
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Nichol – Porter – Schwartz6:55
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Oshie – Berglund8:48
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Russell13:31
xG 0.92–0.38 (71%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo3:06
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Redden – Shattenkirk10:05
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Cammalleri10:12
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Begin – Jackman – Comeau4:51
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hudler – Backlund – Cervenka10:34
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Glencross14:22
xG 0.12–0.69 (15%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bouwmeester – Giordano2:29
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano12:25
xG 0.58–0.67 (46%)attempts 16–13goals 2–1
- Sarich – Butler8:09
xG 0.05–0.40 (12%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).