Mon, Mar 25, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Los Angeles Kings 5, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 312 | 217 | 536 |
| CHI | 111 | 25 | 19 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55CHIMichael FrolikAssists: Brandon Saad, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 4:21LAKAnze KopitarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 7:25LAKJarret StollSHAssists: Trevor Lewis, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 14:31CHIMichael FrolikAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 19:19CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 19:59LAKDwight KingAssists: Drew Doughty, Keaton Ellerby · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 3:51CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Michael Frolik, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 8:06LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Colin Fraser, Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 18:33LAKDustin BrownGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:29LAKMike Richards: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 3:31CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:31LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:55CHIPatrick Kane: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:13LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P2 15:39LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P3 12:27CHIMichael Frolik: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar5:10
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Stoll – Lewis – Clifford6:56
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fraser – Nolan – Toffoli3:01
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Williams – Richards – Toffoli4:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Voynov14:55
xG 0.85–0.47 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Martinez – Ellerby6:17
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty19:29
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 2–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Bolland – Kane – Hayes10:42
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Frolik – Toews – Saad12:03
xG 0.49–0.56 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 3–2
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw7:35
xG 0.02–0.16 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Mayers – Kruger – Bollig6:04
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Keith – Seabrook16:06
xG 0.60–0.82 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 4–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson16:23
xG 0.52–0.77 (41%)attempts 11–14goals 0–3
- Rozsival – Leddy11:37
xG 0.13–0.55 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).