Mon, Mar 25, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 7, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 117 | 314 | 311 | 742 |
| DAL | 214 | 15 | 17 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:31DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:35MINZach PariseAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Matt Cullen · Deflected, 0.33 xG1–1
- P1 17:47DALJaromir JagrPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 3:42MINMikko KoivuAssists: Zach Parise, Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 5:10DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Loui Eriksson, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 9:33MINZach PariseAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 14:22MINMatt CullenAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 7:02DALPhilip LarsenAssists: Reilly Smith, Tomas Vincour · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 12:38MINKyle BrodziakSHGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.36 xG5–4
- P3 18:32MINDany HeatleyAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Kyle Brodziak · Backhand, 0.40 xG6–4
- P3 19:44MINPierre-Marc BouchardENAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.58 xG7–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:27MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:19DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:19MINJustin Falk: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:19DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:08DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:18MINMike Rupp: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:18MINMike Rupp: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:18MINMike Rupp: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Brodziak – Clutterbuck7:28
xG 1.10–0.02 (98%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle13:10
xG 1.20–0.56 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Cullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi8:17
xG 0.45–0.35 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Rupp – Konopka – Mitchell8:11
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon15:33
xG 2.58–0.99 (72%)attempts 19–17goals 3–0
- Suter – Brodin19:15
xG 1.23–0.45 (73%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Gilbert – Falk11:58
xG 0.82–0.41 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Roussel – Vincour3:55
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Eakin – Vincour3:12
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Cole – Fiddler – Roussel3:04
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Roy – Eriksson11:33
xG 0.67–0.98 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestRome – Larsen12:44
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Daley – Goligoski15:21
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 2–2
- Robidas – Dillon18:58
xG 1.05–2.81 (27%)attempts 17–30goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).