Mon, Mar 25, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Detroit Red Wings 3, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 114 | 112 | 19 | 335 |
| PHX | 214 | 06 | 010 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01DETIan WhiteAssists: Jakub Kindl, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 7:56PHXMartin HanzalPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:17PHXRob KlinkhammerAssists: David Moss, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 19:21DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 6:12DETPavel DatsyukPPGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:11DETJakub Kindl: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:13PHXRostislav Klesla: Holding2 min
- P1 18:08DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:36PHXBoyd Gordon: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:42DETValtteri Filppula: Interference2 min
- P2 17:49PHXMichael Stone: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:27PHXRob Klinkhammer: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 14:12PHXKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Franzen – Abdelkader11:05
xG 0.59–0.11 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Miller10:47
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Cleary – Andersson – Brunner6:43
xG 0.73–0.44 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Brunner2:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Kindl12:01
xG 1.18–0.54 (69%)attempts 22–15goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson16:59
xG 0.74–0.67 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Lashoff12:57
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestTorres – Chipchura – Korpikoski8:01
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Vrbata – Hanzal10:20
xG 0.62–0.58 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Moss – Gordon – Klinkhammer5:57
xG 0.50–0.69 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker11:59
xG 0.14–0.65 (17%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klesla – Stone11:53
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Ekman-Larsson14:35
xG 0.30–0.60 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle13:07
xG 1.00–1.39 (42%)attempts 15–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).