Mon, Mar 25, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 5, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 210 | 121 | 28 | 539 |
| ANA | 08 | 19 | 210 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Martin Havlat, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 7:10SJSJoe PavelskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 0:34SJSMartin HavlatAssists: Matt Irwin, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–0
- P2 8:16ANAEmerson EtemAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 0:58ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 10:04SJSJames SheppardGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 18:20ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan · Tip-in, 0.31 xG4–3
- P3 19:32SJSDan BoyleENAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.47 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:31ANABen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:46ANALuca Sbisa: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:47SJSJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:21ANABen Lovejoy: Holding2 min
- P2 18:28SJSPatrick Marleau: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:30ANALuca Sbisa: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:15ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Pavelski – Sheppard – Galiardi11:51
xG 0.75–0.82 (48%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels11:25
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Gomez – Burish – Desjardins6:27
xG 0.02–0.32 (6%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin6:46
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Stuart – Braun13:24
xG 0.67–0.68 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Demers11:05
xG 0.72–1.04 (41%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan5:10
xG 1.05–0.25 (81%)attempts 15–5goals 2–1
- Selanne – Holland – Etem2:47
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Steckel – Staubitz – Etem3:33
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan2:43
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Beauchemin13:23
xG 1.02–0.77 (57%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler12:38
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Sbisa – Fowler4:35
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).