Tue, Mar 26, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 116 | 012 | 114 | 242 |
| TOR | 07 | 115 | 29 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 9:41TORDion PhaneufAssists: Carl Gunnarsson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 0:22TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 0:45FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Filip Kuba · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 3:12TORJoffrey LupulGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:23TORFrazer McLaren: Interference2 min
- P2 13:34FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:00FLAFilip Kuba: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:28FLAColby Robak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSmithson – Upshall – Rallo5:21
xG 0.87–0.23 (79%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Matthias – Huberdeau12:12
xG 0.96–0.63 (60%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann13:53
xG 0.47–0.41 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Upshall – Mueller – Shore3:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Kulikov2:16
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Campbell – Strachan17:47
xG 0.97–0.54 (64%)attempts 25–16goals 0–1
- Campbell – Kulikov2:21
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHamilton – Kulemin – Kadri4:38
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Hamilton – Frattin6:09
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak8:13
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Grabovski – van Riemsdyk – Frattin4:17
xG 0.08–0.03 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser13:40
xG 0.79–0.56 (59%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Kostka – Gardiner16:38
xG 1.15–1.61 (42%)attempts 21–19goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson13:46
xG 0.20–0.74 (21%)attempts 8–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).