Tue, Mar 26, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 015 | 012 | 037 |
| PIT | 05 | 17 | 013 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:19PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Chris Kunitz, Brooks Orpik · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:26MTLGabriel Dumont: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:26PITTyler Kennedy: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:27MTLMichael Ryder: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:32PITMark Eaton: Delaying game2 min
- P3 0:31PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:00MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Moen – Dumont6:09
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Ryder – Plekanec14:18
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:04
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Halpern – Moen – Armstrong2:50
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin14:38
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban15:43
xG 0.74–0.55 (57%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Tinordi6:52
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Morrow – Neal – Jeffrey8:26
xG 0.04–0.06 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter10:30
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby13:10
xG 0.68–0.76 (47%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Adams – Glass – Bennett3:48
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Letang2:58
xG 0.36–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Engelland – Niskanen9:35
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Eaton – Letang12:53
xG 0.08–0.23 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).