Tue, Mar 26, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 114 | 215 | 17 | 436 |
| CAR | 113 | 016 | 010 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06CARJiri TlustyAssists: Riley Nash, Tim Brent · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 13:44WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Evander Kane, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:31WPGToby EnstromPPGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 16:39WPGNik AntropovAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Evander Kane · Deflected, 0.31 xG3–1
- P3 12:37WPGEvander KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:05WPGOlli Jokinen: Interference2 min
- P1 9:13WPGPatrice Cormier: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:13CARBrett Bellemore: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:33CARJoni Pitkanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:23CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:35WPGEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:17WPGEric Tangradi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little12:18
xG 1.23–0.43 (74%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Miettinen – Kane9:35
xG 1.08–0.58 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Antropov – Wellwood – Tangradi7:55
xG 0.10–0.35 (23%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Cormier – Burmistrov3:59
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian16:22
xG 1.61–0.78 (67%)attempts 18–18goals 3–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:24
xG 1.52–0.84 (64%)attempts 28–19goals 0–0
- Meech – Clitsome12:26
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Staal – Skinner9:52
xG 0.83–0.36 (70%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Skinner2:44
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Brent – Westgarth5:31
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Dwyer – Nash10:12
xG 0.07–0.20 (26%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Bellemore8:01
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Corvo – Pitkanen2:01
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason14:13
xG 1.13–1.43 (44%)attempts 20–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).