Wed, Mar 27, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 0, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 010 | 07 | 05 | 022 |
| SJS | 313 | 010 | 16 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: TJ Galiardi, Ryane Clowe · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 4:52SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Logan Couture, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 9:20SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Tommy Wingels, Martin Havlat · Slap, 0.29 xG0–3
- P3 6:44SJSTommy WingelsSHAssists: Logan Couture, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:49ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:03ANABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:03SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:54ANASheldon Souray: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:46SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:25SJSJason Demers: Delaying game2 min
- P3 10:24SJSDan Boyle: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:24ANACorey Perry: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:24ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:24SJSDan Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:28ANASheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano6:44
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Steckel – Etem6:21
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – Palmieri – Holland7:53
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Selanne – Getzlaf – Perry11:33
xG 0.25–0.70 (26%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Souray – Beauchemin14:36
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Fowler2:33
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Allen – Sbisa14:21
xG 0.15–0.48 (23%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Wingels10:47
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Gomez – Desjardins – Sheppard8:44
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Clowe – Pavelski – Galiardi10:11
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun12:05
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Stuart – Demers12:08
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Boyle – Irwin4:52
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).