Thu, Mar 28, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 210 | 15 | 322 |
| TOR | 113 | 18 | 415 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 9:03TORCody FransonPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 11:29CAREric StaalSHAssists: Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:52CARAlexander SeminPPAssists: Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 6:55CARJordan StaalAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 14:35TORDion PhaneufAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 16:50TORJoffrey LupulGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 19:15TORJay McClementENAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–5
- P3 19:57TORNikolay KuleminENAssists: Tyler Bozak, Carl Gunnarsson · Backhand, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:59TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:59CARKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:13TORColton Orr: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:08TORMichael Kostka: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:25CARRiley Nash: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:09CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference2 min
- P2 14:39TORPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 19:32CARJay Harrison: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:30CAREric Staal: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 19:15CARAlexander Semin: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Brent – Westgarth4:18
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty11:32
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Dwyer – Nash – Bowman9:15
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner10:05
xG 0.10–0.59 (15%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Bellemore14:25
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason12:27
xG 0.26–0.49 (35%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- Pitkanen – McBain16:37
xG 0.25–0.50 (33%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak9:06
xG 0.63–0.06 (92%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak2:48
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 2–0
- Grabovski – Hamilton – Frattin6:47
xG 0.12–0.07 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – McLaren2:42
xG 0.01–0.02 (44%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser14:20
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson14:14
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Liles – Kostka13:54
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).