Thu, Mar 28, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 4, Florida Panthers 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 314 | 116 | 03 | 1 | 440 |
| FLA | 112 | 113 | 213 | 02 | 2 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:28FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Tyson Strachan, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 0:43FLATomas FleischmannPPAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 1:36BUFNathan GerbeAssists: Tyler Ennis, Drew Stafford · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 14:56BUFAndrej SekeraAssists: Steve Ott · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 19:04BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Robyn Regehr · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 5:23FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Peter Mueller · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 11:33BUFMarcus FolignoPPAssists: Jordan Leopold, Tyler Myers · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 13:51FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Peter Mueller, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jason Pominville scored
- 2. FLA Peter Mueller stopped
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 4. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 5. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
- 6. FLA Shawn Matthias stopped
- 7. BUF Steve Ott stopped
- 8. FLA Mike Santorelli scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:35BUFCody Hodgson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:20BUFVille Leino: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 4:46BUFPatrick Kaleta: Charging2 min
- P2 4:46FLAErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:46BUFJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:42FLAShawn Matthias: Interference2 min
- P2 11:34BUFJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:59FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:52FLADmitry Kulikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 12:37BUFSteve Ott: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:33FLADrew Shore: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Pominville – Hodgson10:35
xG 0.70–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Porter – Gerbe – Foligno2:39
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stafford – Leino – Ennis4:56
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Hecht – Kaleta – Scott4:32
xG 0.06–0.11 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Sekera12:27
xG 0.84–0.42 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Sekera2:02
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Weber11:26
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMueller – Matthias – Huberdeau8:39
xG 0.76–0.33 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Smithson – Rallo – Howden5:33
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Upshall – Santorelli – Shore7:19
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann11:15
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Strachan2:29
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Kuba – Kulikov7:37
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Brennan – Gudbranson10:18
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).