Mon, Apr 1, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Winnipeg Jets 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 211 | 07 | 010 | 228 |
| NYR | 17 | 114 | 214 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19NYRDerek StepanAssists: Ryan Callahan, Rick Nash · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 1:15WPGNik AntropovAssists: Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 12:54WPGZach BogosianAssists: Ron Hainsey, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 3:11NYRRyan CallahanSHAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 5:46NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Anton Stralman, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 13:07NYRRick NashAssists: Brad Richards, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:03NYRDerek Stepan: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:02NYRMats Zuccarello: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:23NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:39WPGEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:33NYRMats Zuccarello: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:14NYRMats Zuccarello: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Wellwood – Tangradi9:38
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:41
xG 0.91–1.00 (47%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Miettinen – Kane11:15
xG 0.33–0.76 (30%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Byfuglien3:42
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Meech – Bogosian2:37
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian3:23
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Zuccarello12:26
xG 1.14–0.48 (70%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Nash – Callahan – Stepan13:33
xG 0.99–0.77 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 3–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Hagelin5:46
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Hagelin – Miller2:56
xG 0.09–0.37 (19%)attempts 2–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh12:30
xG 1.02–0.15 (87%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Stralman – Del Zotto3:03
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh3:23
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).