Tue, Apr 2, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Winnipeg Jets 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 18 | 08 | 225 |
| NYI | 112 | 218 | 29 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:13NYIAnders LeeAssists: Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 18:06WPGPaul PostmaAssists: Eric Tangradi, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–1
- P2 6:02WPGPaul PostmaAssists: Chris Thorburn, Eric Tangradi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 9:56NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Michael Grabner, Mark Streit · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 19:32NYIFrans NielsenPPGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Mark Streit · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 18:00NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 19:24NYIJohn TavaresENAssists: Brad Boyes, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:05NYIMatt Carkner: Interference2 min
- P2 2:26WPGPatrice Cormier: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:26NYIMatt Carkner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:01WPGEvander Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Wellwood – Tangradi6:05
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Miettinen – Tangradi – Burmistrov2:23
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Cormier – Burmistrov2:20
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Kane5:34
xG 0.11–0.25 (30%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Bogosian2:01
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma10:22
xG 0.24–0.59 (29%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Bogosian13:34
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 10–23goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey13:56
xG 0.82–0.10 (89%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares14:30
xG 1.26–0.56 (69%)attempts 22–17goals 1–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Grabner8:55
xG 0.49–0.31 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Lee8:58
xG 0.21–0.73 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic19:55
xG 1.23–0.35 (78%)attempts 27–19goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey16:54
xG 0.88–0.22 (80%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Carkner – Streit12:57
xG 1.06–1.01 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).