Wed, Apr 3, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 111 | 010 | 127 |
| NYR | 310 | 212 | 117 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:01NYRBrad RichardsPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Dan Girardi · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 12:19NYRRyan McDonaghGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Ryane Clowe · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 14:19NYRRyane CloweAssists: Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 1:53NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Brian Boyle, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–4
- P2 2:27PITPascal DupuisAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Brenden Morrow · Snap, 0.30 xG1–4
- P2 11:52NYRRyane ClowePPAssists: Derick Brassard, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 9:47NYRJohn MooreAssists: Brian Boyle, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.03 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:24NYRRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:36PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:11NYRMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:27PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:18PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:18NYRArron Asham: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:18PITTanner Glass: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:18PITTanner Glass: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:19PITTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:19NYRArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:17PITBrooks Orpik: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Adams – Glass – Kennedy2:23
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cooke – Morrow – Vitale3:17
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Iginla – Malkin – Neal11:31
xG 0.97–1.05 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Sutter8:04
xG 0.19–0.44 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Despres15:41
xG 0.66–0.41 (61%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Murray – Orpik2:21
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Murray – Niskanen13:00
xG 0.75–1.24 (38%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Callahan – Stepan13:38
xG 1.84–0.91 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Richards – Clowe – Zuccarello11:50
xG 0.58–0.58 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Asham – Pyatt – Powe6:49
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Brassard – Hagelin9:38
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh14:30
xG 1.44–0.29 (83%)attempts 22–4goals 1–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto19:27
xG 1.69–1.08 (61%)attempts 23–16goals 1–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto2:20
xG 0.10–0.16 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).