Wed, Apr 3, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 8, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 214 | 312 | 313 | 839 |
| CGY | 24 | 07 | 010 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35CGYMatt StajanAssists: Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 5:18CGYMatt StajanAssists: Curtis Glencross, Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 9:27EDMSam GagnerAssists: Jeff Petry, Lennart Petrell · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–2
- P1 12:59EDMRyan WhitneyAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 3:34EDMNail YakupovPPGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Ryan Whitney · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 7:39EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P2 9:51EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 9:56EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–2
- P3 17:08EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.12 xG7–2
- P3 18:57EDMNail YakupovAssists: Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.09 xG8–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:27CGYSteve Begin: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:27EDMMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:05CGYMikael Backlund: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 2:21CGYMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:34CGYCory Sarich: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:05CGYChris Butler: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:58EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:43EDMNail Yakupov: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:43CGYCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:43EDMRyan Jones: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:43CGYChris Butler: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:15CGYTim Jackman: Instigator2 min
- P3 13:15EDMRyan Whitney: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:15CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:15CGYTim Jackman: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:26
xG 0.57–0.40 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 3–1
- Horcoff – Jones – Yakupov9:41
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi7:58
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Brown – Petrell6:05
xG 0.05–0.10 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry15:56
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Schultz – Schultz13:07
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Potter – Smid2:28
xG 0.23–0.18 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Stempniak – Glencross6:19
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 2–1
- Stajan – Stempniak – Horak2:46
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Glencross – Backlund – Cervenka2:54
xG 0.06–0.09 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Begin – McGrattan – Jackman8:28
xG 0.23–0.33 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBabchuk – Brodie4:45
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sarich – Butler3:22
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano15:03
xG 0.69–0.58 (54%)attempts 11–17goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).