Thu, Apr 4, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Carolina Hurricanes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 313 | 28 | 530 |
| CAR | 016 | 012 | 017 | 045 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:28TBLTeddy PurcellGWGAssists: Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 15:55TBLTom PyattAssists: Alex Killorn, Eric Brewer · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 19:17TBLKeith AulieAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P3 2:24TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 7:30TBLBenoit PouliotAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:38CARPatrick Dwyer: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:42TBLEric Brewer: Holding2 min
- P2 3:05TBLRadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:04TBLRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pyatt won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Purcell – Killorn12:03
xG 0.77–0.53 (59%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Pouliot – Stamkos12:39
xG 0.87–0.70 (56%)attempts 13–20goals 3–0
- Lecavalier – Panik – Connolly9:10
xG 0.57–0.77 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Tyrell – Johnson6:19
xG 0.20–0.43 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Carle7:52
xG 1.16–0.21 (84%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Carle – Gudas6:45
xG 0.94–0.68 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Brewer – Aulie6:59
xG 0.83–0.61 (57%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Skinner12:21
xG 1.23–0.71 (63%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- LaRose – Brent – Westgarth6:09
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty11:50
xG 0.70–0.99 (41%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nash – Bowman8:46
xG 0.18–0.58 (23%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – McBain17:33
xG 1.51–0.59 (72%)attempts 37–11goals 0–2
- Bergeron – Sanguinetti13:50
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason13:21
xG 0.44–1.46 (23%)attempts 9–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).