Thu, Apr 4, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 0, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 07 | 011 | 023 |
| VAN | 113 | 19 | 26 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:21VANKevin BieksaPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Jason Garrison · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 14:26VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 6:47VANChris HigginsAssists: Derek Roy, Jannik Hansen · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 19:56VANZack KassianAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:08VANMaxim Lapierre: Interference2 min
- P1 10:59EDMTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:11EDMMagnus Paajarvi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:05EDMJordan Eberle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:07VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:55EDMNick Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 17:24EDMRyan Whitney: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:15VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:30VANDan Hamhuis: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Eberle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Jones – Yakupov8:21
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:11
xG 0.66–0.76 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Smyth – Brown – Petrell5:09
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi9:59
xG 0.04–0.38 (9%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Smid – Petry15:33
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Whitney – Potter10:02
xG 0.16–0.55 (23%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schultz13:19
xG 0.44–0.91 (33%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Higgins – Hansen8:42
xG 0.45–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows9:00
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Sestito – Ebbett – Pinizzotto4:06
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Kassian2:19
xG 0.02–0.02 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Garrison12:26
xG 0.89–0.34 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Edler11:07
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Barker – Tanev11:12
xG 0.02–0.30 (5%)attempts 2–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).