Sat, Apr 6, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 15 | 010 | 124 |
| LAK | 27 | 117 | 115 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38LAKMike RichardsAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 15:35LAKJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 2:18EDMMagnus PaajarviPPAssists: Nail Yakupov, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 8:22LAKSlava VoynovPPAssists: Justin Williams, Jarret Stoll · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 19:11LAKDrew DoughtyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:15EDMLadislav Smid: Elbowing2 min
- P1 5:12LAKJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:09LAKKyle Clifford: Interference2 min
- P1 14:33EDMJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:38EDMMike Brown: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:31LAKKyle Clifford: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:00EDMJeff Petry: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:22LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:20EDMRyan Smyth: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi3:26
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Yakupov2:21
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Smithson – Brown – Petrell4:15
xG 0.04–0.14 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Hemsky6:07
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Whitney – Schultz4:55
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Schultz – Potter3:41
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schultz7:31
xG 0.16–0.22 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Lewis – King8:36
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar10:43
xG 0.41–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Fraser – Richardson – Nolan7:01
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Clifford8:44
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty13:33
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Ellerby12:05
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Voynov12:05
xG 0.44–0.21 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).