Sat, Apr 6, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 012 | 318 | 19 | 439 |
| CAR | 014 | 014 | 121 | 149 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:00NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Brad Richards, Ryane Clowe · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 2:31NYRRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 11:19NYRRick NashPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.20 xG3–0
- P3 9:27CARZac DalpeAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 19:59NYRBrian BoyleENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:58NYRBrian Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:38CARDrayson Bowman: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:28NYRDarroll Powe: Interference2 min
- P2 0:15CARJiri Tlusty: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:30CARTim Gleason: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:51NYRBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:24CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:00CARPatrick Dwyer: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:02NYRRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:15NYRBrad Richards: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Clowe – Zuccarello8:00
xG 0.93–0.22 (81%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Asham – Pyatt – Powe5:58
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Nash – Callahan – Stepan7:33
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Boyle – Brassard – Hagelin10:30
xG 0.27–1.50 (15%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh14:43
xG 1.20–0.79 (60%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Eminger – Moore6:33
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto13:23
xG 0.32–1.57 (17%)attempts 10–25goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Staal – Skinner2:22
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Tlusty6:19
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- LaRose – Nash – Bowman2:07
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- LaRose – Brent – Bowman2:33
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Sanguinetti7:05
xG 0.85–0.26 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Harrison – Bellemore7:39
xG 0.83–0.46 (64%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason6:37
xG 0.56–0.34 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).