Sun, Apr 7, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 1, Detroit Red Wings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 18 | 06 | 125 |
| DET | 07 | 013 | 08 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:28STLChris PorterGWGAssists: Patrik Berglund, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:01DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P2 12:22STLPatrik Berglund: Interference2 min
- P2 19:16STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:48STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:59STLDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:59DETHenrik Zetterberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:52DETNiklas Kronwall: Concealing puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Franzen won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Stewart – Berglund10:55
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:00
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Perron13:55
xG 0.48–0.56 (46%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak12:46
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Leopold – Shattenkirk12:24
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:07
xG 0.56–0.61 (48%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Franzen – Nyquist11:43
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Eaves – Emmerton – Sheahan5:24
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader12:18
xG 0.45–0.55 (45%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Cleary – Miller – Andersson8:45
xG 0.04–0.29 (11%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson13:37
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl12:27
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- White – Quincey2:36
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).