Sun, Apr 7, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 19 | 011 | 230 |
| WSH | 013 | 313 | 112 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Sami Salo · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 3:14WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Jack Hillen, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:37TBLAlex KillornAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 12:54WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Joel Ward, Jack Hillen · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 16:21WSHJoel WardGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Jason Chimera · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:55WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:45WSHSteve Oleksy: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:55TBLKeith Aulie: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:40WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:32TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
- P2 19:50TBLMartin St. Louis: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:50WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Purcell – Killorn11:59
xG 0.99–0.50 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Crombeen – Thompson – Pyatt6:30
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Johnson – Panik – Connolly8:32
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Pouliot – Stamkos13:11
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTaormina – Gudas5:14
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Aulie – Gudas5:00
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Carle4:05
xG 0.48–0.34 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:57
xG 1.47–0.33 (82%)attempts 20–6goals 1–1
- Chimera – Ward – Perreault8:53
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Beagle – Volpatti7:12
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Fehr – Brouwer10:09
xG 0.12–0.29 (30%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner20:47
xG 1.08–0.66 (62%)attempts 18–21goals 0–0
- Erskine – Oleksy13:50
xG 0.93–0.55 (63%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Hillen – Carlson13:28
xG 0.66–0.74 (47%)attempts 19–11goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).