Sun, Apr 7, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 014 | 113 | 02 | 0 | 239 |
| BUF | 14 | 111 | 07 | 04 | 1 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:22BUFPatrick KaletaAssists: Jochen Hecht · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 18:20NJDSteve SullivanPPAssists: Steve Bernier · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 13:44BUFSteve OttAssists: Cody Hodgson, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 5:46NJDMark FayneSHAssists: Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 2. NJD Steve Sullivan stopped
- 3. BUF Nathan Gerbe scored
- 4. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 5. BUF Steve Ott stopped
- 6. NJD Travis Zajac stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:15BUFKevin Porter: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:31NJDTravis Zajac: Interference2 min
- P2 18:22BUFJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:42BUFSteve Ott: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:33NJDTom Kostopoulos: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:33BUFMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:14BUFMike Weber: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:06NJDTravis Zajac: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Henrique – Loktionov10:36
xG 0.37–0.15 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Bernier – Josefson8:32
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Gionta – Carter7:29
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Elias – Sullivan – Zajac10:29
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Zidlicky8:46
xG 0.44–0.11 (81%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Zidlicky – Greene3:44
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky4:13
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Ennis – Foligno10:39
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Ott – Gerbe – Hodgson9:38
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Hecht – Kaleta – Scott7:42
xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Porter – Adam – Flynn8:44
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Myers15:00
xG 0.70–0.49 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Pardy – Pysyk13:19
xG 0.18–0.28 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Sekera – Weber13:49
xG 0.14–0.53 (21%)attempts 4–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).