Mon, Apr 8, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 018 | 012 | 212 | 242 |
| BOS | 39 | 212 | 115 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51BOSRich PeverleyAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Andrew Ference · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 7:58BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Gregory Campbell, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P1 17:20BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 3:57BOSAndrew FerenceAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Gregory Campbell · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 10:29BOSJordan CaronAssists: Rich Peverley, Shawn Thornton · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–5
- P3 10:03CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Brett Bellemore, Jiri Tlusty · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–5
- P3 10:48CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Riley Nash, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–5
- P3 16:56BOSNathan HortonAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Milan Lucic · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–6
Penalties (3)
- P2 12:10BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:57CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:46CARRiley Nash: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lucic won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNash – Bowman – Skinner5:02
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Tlusty13:05
xG 1.18–0.61 (66%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Nash – Bowman – Dalpe3:02
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Brent10:47
xG 0.39–0.70 (36%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Sanguinetti11:01
xG 1.15–0.33 (78%)attempts 16–4goals 1–1
- Corvo – Gleason13:06
xG 0.91–0.83 (52%)attempts 19–16goals 0–2
- Bergeron – McBain2:45
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Peverley – Caron9:02
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Jagr – Campbell – Marchand13:23
xG 0.90–0.79 (53%)attempts 13–16goals 2–1
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:59
xG 0.70–0.74 (49%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Kelly – Paille – Seguin10:39
xG 0.14–0.93 (13%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Seidenberg15:33
xG 1.04–0.61 (63%)attempts 19–20goals 3–0
- Ference – Boychuk3:02
xG 0.04–0.11 (24%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Bartkowski11:58
xG 0.75–0.84 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).