Mon, Apr 8, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 217 | 17 | 334 |
| COL | 08 | 118 | 014 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:45COLBrad MaloneAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 10:36CGYRoman CervenkaAssists: Mark Giordano, Roman Horak · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 16:53CGYMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Roman Horak, Steve Begin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 16:41CGYAlex TanguaySHAssists: Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:18COLDavid Jones: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:22COLPatrick Bordeleau: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:46COLGreg Zanon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:54CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:44CGYCory Sarich: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:44COLJan Hejda: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:44COLJan Hejda: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:44CGYCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:06COLDavid Van Der Gulik: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:26COLPatrick Bordeleau: Charging2 min
- P2 12:43CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P3 4:12COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:24CGYRoman Cervenka: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:39CGYRoman Cervenka: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Reinhart
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Jackman – Backlund – Cervenka3:18
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Horak – Baertschi6:22
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Begin – Stajan – Glencross2:03
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stempniak – Reinhart4:17
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Brodie4:09
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Butler – Brodie7:24
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Wideman – Butler3:27
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Malone – O'Reilly3:42
xG 0.11–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Van Der Gulik – Bordeleau – Olver2:20
xG 0.08–0.02 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Jones – McLeod3:22
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Duchene – Landeskog12:36
xG 0.47–0.66 (42%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hejda – Elliott9:25
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Johnson13:02
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Zanon – Barrie12:43
xG 0.45–0.71 (39%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).