Tue, Apr 9, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 08 | 114 | 130 |
| WPG | 011 | 312 | 17 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:54WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 10:04WPGAaron GagnonGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 19:38WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–3
- P3 4:54BUFKevin PorterAssists: Marcus Foligno, Brian Flynn · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 19:34WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.78 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:30BUFTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:06WPGEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:00WPGMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:17WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Vanek – Hodgson3:59
xG 0.37–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ott – Gerbe – Hodgson8:52
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hecht – Scott – Flynn2:36
xG 0.01–0.02 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hecht – Kaleta – Scott5:33
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Weber14:49
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Pardy – Pysyk13:08
xG 0.78–0.86 (48%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Myers16:21
xG 0.37–1.33 (22%)attempts 8–24goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Wellwood – Kane10:31
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:19
xG 1.14–0.95 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Gagnon – Wright7:23
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Tangradi – Burmistrov8:17
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Clitsome7:14
xG 0.79–0.08 (91%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Stuart – Clitsome8:28
xG 0.64–0.10 (87%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian14:22
xG 0.81–0.65 (55%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).