Wed, Apr 10, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 110 | 010 | 39 | 429 |
| CGY | 113 | 010 | 018 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:17CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Max Reinhart, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:21VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Jason Garrison, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 12:37VANMaxim LapierreGWGAssists: Andrew Ebbett · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P3 15:34VANMason RaymondAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–1
- P3 17:27VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:53VANJason Garrison: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:57VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:25CGYAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:38VANRyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:44CGYSven Baertschi: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:02CGYBlair Jones: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:02VANDerek Roy: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:56VANMaxim Lapierre: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:11CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:22CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Lapierre – Ebbett2:20
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:20
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Sestito – Ebbett5:30
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Hansen – Weise8:22
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa3:31
xG 0.81–0.23 (78%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Edler – Garrison2:36
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Garrison11:32
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Horak – Baertschi8:19
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Jackman – Glencross – Reinhart3:53
xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stempniak – Backlund7:05
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Glencross – Jones – Cervenka2:23
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie2:06
xG 0.63–0.12 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Sarich – Brodie12:23
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano14:15
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).