Thu, Apr 11, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 115 | 013 | 016 | 144 |
| WSH | 08 | 213 | 110 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Eric Staal, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
- P2 8:08WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:46WSHMike GreenGWGAssists: Jay Beagle, Wojtek Wolski · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:54WSHTroy BrouwerENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.74 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:06CARJustin Faulk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 3:14WSHTroy Brouwer: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:51WSHJack Hillen: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:02CARAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:56CARJiri Tlusty: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:00WSHMike Ribeiro: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:54CARJordan Staal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:40WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:40CARNicolas Blanchard: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:10WSHMarcus Johansson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:10CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Staal – Skinner6:54
xG 0.90–0.19 (83%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Blanchard – Nash2:25
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty15:01
xG 1.21–1.07 (53%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
- LaRose – Wallace – Nash2:36
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Sanguinetti11:15
xG 1.26–0.35 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Harrison – Sanguinetti2:08
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Corvo – Bergeron3:53
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:29
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Wolski – Beagle5:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Brouwer – Volpatti12:24
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Perreault9:48
xG 0.32–1.01 (24%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHillen – Oleksy12:35
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Green – Alzner17:15
xG 0.59–0.78 (43%)attempts 16–23goals 1–0
- Erskine – Carlson16:24
xG 0.82–1.21 (41%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).