Thu, Apr 11, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 111 | 112 | 01 | 1 | 228 |
| LAK | 215 | 06 | 011 | 05 | 3 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:14LAKMike RichardsAssists: Jake Muzzin, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 16:22COLPaul StastnyAssists: David Jones · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 5:05COLPatrick BordeleauAssists: Stefan Elliott · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. LAK Jeff Carter scored
- 2. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 3. LAK Dustin Brown scored
- 4. COL PA Parenteau scored
- 5. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:03COLDavid Jones: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:52COLBrad Malone: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:37COLGreg Zanon: Charging2 min
- P2 3:37LAKSlava Voynov: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:36LAKJake Muzzin: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:55COLPaul Stastny: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – O'Reilly – Landeskog8:57
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Van Der Gulik – Bordeleau – Malone4:42
xG 0.41–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Mitchell – Duchene12:09
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn9:07
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Barrie2:14
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Barrie5:57
xG 0.31–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Zanon – Barrie9:16
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar11:43
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Penner10:47
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Stoll – Lewis – King11:30
xG 0.29–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Richardson – Clifford – Nolan7:32
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty16:29
xG 1.03–0.60 (63%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Ellerby10:03
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Voynov17:34
xG 0.48–0.65 (42%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).