Fri, Apr 12, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 25 | 26 | 17 | 518 |
| NSH | 16 | 09 | 113 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:04DALErik ColeAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Philip Larsen · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:40DALRay WhitneyPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Vernon Fiddler · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 18:42NSHTaylor BeckPPAssists: Roman Josi, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 2:28DALTom WandellGWGAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Antoine Roussel · Tip-in, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 11:12DALAlex ChiassonAssists: Ray Whitney, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 7:03DALAlex ChiassonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 12:12NSHBobby ButlerAssists: Daniel Bang, Victor Bartley · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:59NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:55NSHNick Spaling: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:05DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 16:05NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:54DALBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P2 7:11DALEric Nystrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:37DALStephane Robidas: Holding2 min
- P3 16:31NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Boarding5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Benn – Chiasson11:17
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Wandell – Roussel – Garbutt6:27
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
- Cole – Fiddler – Nystrom10:16
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Eakin – Fraser10:45
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Robidas – Daley14:05
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Dillon17:46
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Rome – Larsen13:17
xG 0.14–0.36 (29%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestKostitsyn – Spaling – Smith4:15
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Beck11:40
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Kostitsyn – Halischuk – Spaling5:22
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Clune – Halischuk – Mueller6:12
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Klein3:35
xG 0.27–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi15:50
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Bartley – Blum4:15
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).