Sat, Apr 13, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 14 | 113 | 013 | 230 |
| CAR | 117 | 18 | 213 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07BOSMilan LucicAssists: Matt Bartkowski, Jaromir Jagr · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 19:24CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–1
- P2 14:04CARJiri TlustyAssists: Eric Staal, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 17:57BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 9:36CARJoe CorvoPPGWGAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:31CARJiri TlustyENAssists: Jordan Staal, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.78 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 14:14BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:14CARKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:27BOSRich Peverley: Elbowing2 min
- P1 18:41BOSMilan Lucic: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:41BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:41CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:32BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:32CARNicolas Blanchard: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:13CARChad LaRose: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:28CARTim Gleason: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:57CARRiley Nash: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:53BOSChris Kelly: Kneeing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Campbell – Lucic13:20
xG 0.82–0.35 (70%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Thornton – Peverley – Daugavins3:42
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Kelly – Lucic2:29
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Seguin7:45
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Seidenberg3:40
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:35
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski8:28
xG 0.36–0.20 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Staal – Skinner11:12
xG 0.80–0.36 (69%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty11:24
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Semin – Staal – Skinner2:01
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Dwyer – Blanchard3:24
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Faulk18:36
xG 1.38–1.00 (58%)attempts 28–20goals 1–1
- McBain – Sanguinetti11:21
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Corvo – Harrison13:37
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 10–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).