Sat, Apr 13, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 27 | 010 | 15 | 322 |
| FLA | 06 | 110 | 010 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:49PITKris LetangAssists: Beau Bennett, Brenden Morrow · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 18:27PITBrenden MorrowGWGAssists: Beau Bennett, Joe Vitale · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 4:10FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Jack Skille, Brian Campbell · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 19:39PITBrenden MorrowENAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 9:18PITJoe Vitale: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:06FLAScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:44PITBrenden Morrow: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:21FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:45PITMatt Cooke: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:40PITBrenden Morrow: Elbowing2 min
- P3 18:12FLAErik Gudbranson: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Dupuis – Bennett8:27
xG 0.67–0.08 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Kunitz11:27
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale8:13
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Morrow – Dupuis – Kennedy2:00
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang17:20
xG 1.08–0.83 (56%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Eaton – Despres13:13
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Murray – Niskanen11:47
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Skille – Bjugstad9:09
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Matthias – Rallo – Howden7:23
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau8:49
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann11:34
xG 0.42–0.79 (35%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Gudbranson9:29
xG 0.52–0.09 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Weaver – Brennan13:21
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Campbell – Weaver2:52
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).