Sat, Apr 13, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 28 | 06 | 02 | 2 | 322 |
| MIN | 115 | 010 | 114 | 02 | 0 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:59MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Brett Clark, Jason Pominville · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:53CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Dalton Prout · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:18CBJFedor TyutinAssists: Vinny Prospal, Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 16:45MINJason PominvillePPAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.57 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. CBJ Mark Letestu scored
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 4. CBJ Cam Atkinson scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:17MINCharlie Coyle: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P1 0:17MINCharlie Coyle: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:17CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Instigator2 min
- P1 0:17CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:17CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 8:59CBJAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:17MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:17CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:20CBJJames Wisniewski: Elbowing2 min
- P2 19:21MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:32CBJNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:01CBJDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Letestu – Calvert – Atkinson2:10
xG 0.04–0.01 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Dubinsky2:38
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 5–1goals 2–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Letestu2:04
xG 0.02–0.06 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen2:34
xG 0.02–0.18 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Prout12:51
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson2:16
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Wisniewski12:30
xG 0.07–0.36 (17%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestSetoguchi – Zucker – Granlund8:22
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Koivu – Parise – Setoguchi4:25
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Bouchard – Brodziak4:50
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Clutterbuck5:37
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Spurgeon10:42
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Suter – Brodin15:07
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Suter2:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).