Mon, Apr 15, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 110 | 25 | 524 |
| NSH | 09 | 219 | 010 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:34VANDerek RoyAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Jannik Hansen · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 1:34NSHNick SpalingAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Daniel Bang · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 11:40NSHBobby ButlerAssists: Victor Bartley · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 17:02VANJason GarrisonPPGWGAssists: Mason Raymond, Kevin Bieksa · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 0:50VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 15:53VANRyan KeslerAssists: Derek Roy, Alexander Edler · Snap, 0.23 xG5–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:50NSHTaylor Beck: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 5:23NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:23VANSteven Pinizzotto: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:08NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:56NSHHal Gill: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:35VANJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P3 11:48NSHMatt Halischuk: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:47NSHShea Weber: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:47VANZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:47NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:47VANAndrew Alberts: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:47VANZack Kassian: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:47NSHPekka Rinne: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:47VANZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:47VANAndrew Alberts: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spaling won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:24
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Roy – Kesler – Hansen11:47
xG 0.63–0.92 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Lapierre – Pinizzotto – Weise7:35
xG 0.13–0.48 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Raymond – Ebbett – Kassian10:07
xG 0.15–0.69 (18%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bieksa – Edler16:05
xG 0.64–0.78 (45%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Garrison14:04
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 5–13goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Ballard3:57
xG 0.15–0.52 (22%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestClune – Halischuk – Watson9:24
xG 0.83–0.08 (91%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Spaling – Bang10:44
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Mueller – Smith – Butler9:23
xG 0.40–0.02 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Legwand – Beck – Forsberg10:52
xG 0.82–0.85 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi18:17
xG 1.04–0.45 (70%)attempts 18–10goals 1–2
- Gill – Bartley14:03
xG 0.79–0.48 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Blum – Ekholm14:29
xG 0.69–0.42 (62%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).