Mon, Apr 15, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 112 | 29 | 427 |
| CGY | 011 | 03 | 39 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17MINMikko KoivuAssists: Zach Parise, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 11:13MINJason PominvilleAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 3:42CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Roman Horak, Roman Cervenka · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 3:53MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Devin Setoguchi · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 5:06MINJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Matt Cullen, Jonas Brodin · Slap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 11:19CGYBen HanowskiAssists: Mikael Backlund, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–2
- P3 19:20CGYSven BaertschiAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:12MINRyan Suter: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:27MINJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:28CGYMark Giordano: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horak won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle12:53
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 17–4goals 1–1
- Pominville – Bouchard – Brodziak11:00
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Zucker8:36
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Clutterbuck9:21
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Spurgeon14:05
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Suter – Brodin18:04
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 3–0
- Gilbert – Stoner13:41
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Reinhart – Baertschi8:18
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Hudler – Horak – Cervenka2:38
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Hudler – Glencross – Backlund7:17
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Hanowski – Horak7:41
xG 0.12–0.31 (27%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarson – Butler11:20
xG 0.38–0.17 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie15:03
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 1–2
- Sarich – Giordano13:57
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).