Tue, Apr 16, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 113 | 110 | 234 |
| OTT | 114 | 214 | 06 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:22OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Cory Conacher, Sergei Gonchar · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 6:00OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Sergei Gonchar · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 10:00CARJustin FaulkAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 12:12OTTChris NeilGWGAssists: Guillaume Latendresse · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 16:30CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (19)
- P1 13:11OTTJared Cowen: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:11CARChad LaRose: Instigator2 min
- P1 13:11CARChad LaRose: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:11CARChad LaRose: Misconduct10 min
- P1 15:21OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:21CARNicolas Blanchard: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:22OTTMarc Methot: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:10CARKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10OTTJared Cowen: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10CARKevin Westgarth: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:16OTTKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P2 19:47OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:47CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:30CARKevin Westgarth: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:30OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:18OTTMilan Michalek: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:18CARMarc-Andre Bergeron: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:18OTTMilan Michalek: Elbowing2 min
- P3 17:19CARAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Dwyer – Staal7:13
xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- LaRose – Staal – Skinner2:05
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Dwyer – Nash3:36
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty12:36
xG 0.15–1.13 (12%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Sanguinetti2:48
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Corvo – Sanguinetti2:08
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk3:28
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Conacher – Zibanejad8:34
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Turris13:36
xG 0.89–0.41 (69%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Neil – Latendresse – Smith7:02
xG 0.21–0.50 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Greening – Condra – Pageau7:06
xG 0.13–0.73 (15%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Wiercioch12:31
xG 1.35–0.80 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 3–0
- Phillips – Methot14:31
xG 1.09–0.59 (65%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
- Gryba – Cowen10:33
xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).